Global Hot Spots

Political & Economic Forecasts

Argentina’s Disconnect with Debt Reality

On June 16, 2014, the US Supreme Court refused to hear Argentina’s appeal of a previous court order that blocks the distribution of Argentina’s July 2014 bond payment until Argentina settles with bondholders from their default in 2001. In December 2001, Argentina defaulted on its loans, and in January 2002, removed the peso peg to the US dollar, resulting in the peso’s devaluation.

Will Argentina default again?

On June 16, 2014, Mars at 13* Libra was back at the same position it held on April 23, 2014, when a Grand Cross formed of Mars opposing Uranus at 13* Aries, at right angles to Jupiter 13* Cancer opposing Pluto at 13* Capricorn. In Argentina’s May 25, 1810 natal chart, Mars was conjunct the natal North Node at 12* Libra, and square progressed Venus at 13* Capricorn.

An amazingly similar configuration occurred in December 2001, when Argentina defaulted. On December 23, 2001, Mercury was conjunct progressed Venus at 13* Capricorn, opposing Jupiter at 11* Cancer. This opposition formed a Grand Cross with the Moon and natal South Node 12* Aries opposing progressed Mars 11* Libra and natal North Node 12* Libra.

To answer the question, it’s very likely that Argentina will default again.

However, in 2014, Uranus and Pluto are involved in the same Grand Cross as occurred in 2001, showing a much heavier debt burden and more serious consequences. The ramifications could spread much farther than Argentina.

To continue the comparison, in December 2001, transiting Saturn at 9* Gemini was conjunct natal Mars, opposing progressed Neptune at 8* Sagittarius. But in late June 2014, transiting Venus is conjunct natal Mars 9* Gemini, opposing progressed Neptune, with transiting Neptune 7* Pisces forming a T-square. Looking back earlier in 2001 for signs of a pending crisis, in early May 2001, Jupiter 14* Gemini opposed Pluto 14* Sagittarius and natal Saturn 12* Sagittarius, with progressed Pluto 14* Pisces forming a T-square. In late August 2001, Saturn opposed Pluto and formed the same T-square with progressed Pluto. In 2001, Saturn interacting with natal Mars and progressed Neptune enforced a grip on reality and a structure to provide a practical solution. But in 2014, it is Neptune that is interacting with the progressed Neptune opposing natal Mars. This indicates a dangerous disregard of reality, and a serious erosion of Argentina’s international credit-worthiness.

Note that in 2001, the transiting Mars-Saturn square interacted with natal Mars opposing progressed Saturn.  The progressed Moon was also involved. In 2014, the same elements are present. Mars and Saturn interact with progressed Uranus and the progressed Moon in 2014, but they do not interact with natal Mars opposing progressed Neptune, as they did in 2001. Their influence has to be transferred according to the sign in which the Mars-Saturn conjunction falls, which is Scorpio, ruled by Mars and Pluto. During April 2014, transiting Jupiter opposed progressed Venus, just as it did in 2001. But in 2014, transiting Pluto is conjunct progressed Venus. With the Uranus-Pluto square involved this time, Argentina could be just the spark that lights the fuse leading to contagion.

Argentina has until July 31, 2014, to negotiate a settlement with its creditors from 2001. On July 29, the Moon at 6* Virgo opposes both Neptune 6* Pisces and natal Moon 4* Pisces, forming a Grand Cross with natal Mars 9* Gemini opposing progressed Neptune 9* Sagittarius. Argentina doesn’t have many options to exercise at the end of July, and yet it insists on its position of denying repayment on the 2001 loans.

The October 8, 2014 lunar eclipse once again activates the T-square of progressed Venus at 13* Capricorn, squaring the natal Nodes. The North Node at the time of the eclipse is conjunct progressed Mars at 19* Libra, while Mars at the time of the eclipse, at 16* Sagittarius, squares natal Pluto 16* Pisces. Argentina is willing to fight their case.

But the November 19-24, 2014 time period shows a major disruption to Argentina’s finances and currency, for then Mars at 19* Capricorn squares its position at the time of the October 8 eclipse, and Uranus is conjunct the natal South Node. With Jupiter 22* Leo conjunct the progressed Moon 21* Leo forming a T-square to progressed Jupiter 23* Taurus opposite Saturn 26* Scorpio, the effect of decisions will be magnified: they will spread through international finance, beyond Argentina.

Argentina’s leaders may make a sudden, ill-informed decision on November 21, perhaps in response to another court ruling, when the Moon and Mercury conjoin progressed Uranus, while Venus conjuncts progressed Neptune and squares transiting Neptune. With Mars, natural ruler of the 8th house of debt, so heavily involved, as well as Pluto and Venus, this shows a serious slide in both Argentine stocks and Argentina’s credit rating.

Mary Schoeppel